Social Security could run out of money three years earlier than federal officials are projecting, according to a new analysis of spending and demographic data.

Conducted using a budget modeling system released Wednesday, the analysis projects the Social Security trust fund will run dry in 2031 — three years sooner than the Social Security Administration’s forecast.

The system, which uses federal budget and census data, was developed at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

The project was led by professor Kent Smetters, a former Congressional Budget Office economist and Treasury Department deputy secretary, and advised by high-profile budget experts.