Memory care will be the biggest growth area in senior living and long-term care in 2018, predict executives participating in Lancaster Pollard's “2018 Seniors Housing and Care Survey,” the results of which were released Tuesday.
Lancaster Pollard received 386 responses to its survey, conducted in December, and 73% of participants said they were CEOs, owners or chief financial officers of senior living and long-term care facilities. Sixty-two percent of respondents were from for-profit providers.
Fifty-three percent of respondents forecast that Alzheimer's/dementia care will be the biggest growth area this year, ahead of affordable housing, assisted living, independent living, home health services, hospice care, continuing care retirement communities and skilled nursing. In last year's survey, respondents identified affordable housing as the top growth area.
“I think tax reform created some uncertainties with affordable senior living in 2017 — in particular, whether tax-exempt bond financing for 4% low-income housing tax credits would go away and what impact lower tax rates would have on tax-exempt bond and LIHTC demand,” Steven W. Kennedy Jr, senior managing director at Lancaster Pollard, told McKnight's Senior Living. “Fortunately, the bullet targeting tax-exempt bond financing was largely dodged, but tax-exempt bond and LIHTC buyers will lose some relative value from decreased tax-rates. That can put some more pressure on project margins. While the need for affordable senior living product and alternatives is still tremendous, the need for Alzheimer's/memory care is also tremendous, but that product was not directly impacted by potential tax reform concern.”